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"However, the expected recovery remains weak, and economic growth is expected to be only slightly above population growth, a pace that hampers efforts to promote employment and reduce poverty”, The World Bank says.

Projected growth rates also conceal wide disparities between countries whose economies depend heavily on natural resources, the top one being hydrocarbons, and countries whose economies are less dependent on these resources.

Nigeria, South Africa and Angola, the main economies of the continent, rebounded after the sharp downturn in 2016, but this recovery is slow due to insufficient adjustment in relation to the decline in material prices and the uncertainty of policies. In addition, several oil-exporting countries of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) are facing economic difficulties.

In general, growth will remain sluggish in oil-exporting countries, while it is expected to recover modestly in the metal-exporting countries. GDP growth in countries with less commodity-dependent economies is expected to remain strong, supported by investment in infrastructure, resilient service sectors and the recovery of agricultural production. This is particularly the case in Ethiopia, Senegal and Tanzania.

According to the latest data, seven countries (Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Rwanda, Senegal and Tanzania) continue to show economic resilience, aided by domestic demand. These countries had annual growth rates of more than 5.4% between 2015 and 2017, concentrating nearly 27% of the region's population and accounting for 13% of its total GDP.

The World Bank also stresses that the risks associated with these regional outlooks are due to the greater than expected tightening of financing conditions on world markets, less straightforward improvements in commodity prices and an increase in protectionism. Domestically, the risks for the current recovery are linked to the inadequate pace of reforms, increased security threats and a climate of political uncertainty before elections in some countries.

"While countries are making budgetary adjustments, we need to protect investment-friendly conditions so that countries in sub-Saharan Africa can recover more," says Albert G. Zeufack, World Bank Chief Economist for the Africa Region.

"We need to implement reforms that increase the productivity of African workers and create a stable macroeconomic environment. More productive and better jobs are helping to combat poverty on the continent", he added.

Source: adapted from the article “La Banque mondiale prévoit un rebond de la croissance en Afrique subsaharienne, à 2,7% en 2017 et 3,2 % en 2018”, Agence Ecofin www.agenceecofin.com